In fact, the state Department of Health keeps aggregate data on nursing home deaths, and it shows that 2,225 Louisiana nursing home residents have died of the coronavirus, according to spokesman ... These are polygon and raster data sets derived from 2002 Landsat Thematic Mapper Satellite Imagery that indicates areas of land and areas of water in Louisiana. The Louisiana State Census Data Center is a cooperative program between Louisiana and the U.S. Census Bureau. Its purpose is to enhance awareness of and access to Census Bureau programs and products that provide Louisiana data. Provides up to the minute traffic and transit information for Louisiana. View the real time traffic map with travel times, traffic accident details, traffic cameras and other road conditions. Plan your trip and get the fastest route taking into account current traffic conditions. QuickFacts Louisiana. QuickFacts provides statistics for all states and counties, and for cities and towns with a population of 5,000 or more. Map of Radon Zones in Louisiana based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data More Louisiana directories: Cities, towns, and villages in Louisiana between 1000 and 6000 residents ; Towns, and villages in Louisiana with fewer than 1000 residents; More data: Zip Codes, Counties, Businesses, Houses, Weather Forecasts “The data still has Louisiana red for cases, at more than 100 cases per 100,000 population over the previous seven days,” Edwards said, referring to the latest summary from the task force on a ... Between April 20 and April 24, 2020, Louisiana did not report testing data from commercial labs due to a state review of data. On June 19, 2020 , Louisiana's data changed due to deduplication and the state's removal of out-of-state cases. Louisiana Birth Data 2017; Louisiana Birth Data 2017 State Rank* U.S.** Percent of Births to Unmarried Mothers: 52.7: 2nd: 39.8: Cesarean Delivery Rate: 37.5 In 2018, Louisiana had a population of 4.66M people with a median age of 37.3 and a median household income of $47,905. Between 2017 and 2018 the population of Louisiana declined from 4.68M to 4.66M, a -0.52% decrease and its median household income grew from $46,145 to $47,905, a 3.81% increase.
Nectar of the Gods in the Tropical Swamp
2018.05.23 23:37 JustinGitelmanMusicNectar of the Gods in the Tropical Swamp
The best place to discuss and appreciate New Orleans and all of Louisiana's fantastic funky craft beer scene. ....................................................................... Nectar of the Gods in the Tropical Swamp. ....................................................................... #Recommended Subs /beer /beerporn /craftbeer /beerwithaview /beerreleases /NewOrleans /NewOrleansLocals /AskNOLA /NOLAbicycling
2020.09.19 04:19 fcatthepanerabreadA week in your favorite firearm dealer's not-so erotic life *or* FC's tale of two grandmas! 9/18/2020
Friday 9/11/2020 to Friday 9/18/2020 I won't do the play by play. It's more fun to just amalgamate the highlight reel of the week. Emails! Subject: Sig P226 Message: Will trade for RAS-47? FC: Sure. What do you propose? I have a century arms RAS47 that has 30 total rounds through it. Magpul furnishing blk on blk. FC: Right, you told me that earlier. Shipped or picked up? What value do you put on your trade? Meet in person I’m in Lafayette. Value 900-1000. FC: Okay, so I'm supposed to give you asking price for what reason? I have to resell that gun, so I'm supposed to buy it from you for $900 and sell it again for $800? I was looking for a straight trade so you’d only have to sell it for what your asking for the Sig, or more if you're good at your job. AK's are definitely a hotter demand item right now. I’d prefer if you could text me (number) (Editors note: FC does not text. Only drug dealers do business via text message.) FC: Let me get this right. You want a straight trade so I only have to sell it for what I'm asking for the Sig. I have to do the work of selling two guns so I can make the same money? You can sell an AK for more then the Sig in the current market. I’m just stating how easy it is for you to break even worse case scenario. FC: There's a lot of gun guys in the breaking even business. I'm not one of them. Plus, if it's so easy to sell an AK, why don't you sell it and bring me cash? It’s a trade so your only selling one anyways. Plus all will sell a lot faster... I’m not a dealer I don’t have people walking in looking for guns. Whatever easy sale and flip for ya but your loss bud FC: Selling an Sig 9mm plus selling an AK is two guns. You must have gotten that common core math. I'll tell you what. You think it will sell fast? Bring it over here and leave it with me. I'll tag it and put it out at $1200 and when it sells, I'll have a 226 ready for you. (No response) Subject: Sig P220 on Gunbroker Message: your ad says $1200 with CCL. arkansas ccl is reciprical with louisiana will you honor that? FC: Picking up in person? No. Reciprocal for carry not for anything else like NICS exemption. are you a federal firearms dealer ? FC: No I am not. (Editors note: I'm a manufacturer) if i can l can legally hold own and carry any firearm concealed on my body or in my vehicle , then the rest is just cash exchange between to citizens , i can legally have own and carry the p938 , there is nothing not legal , we cN do a orivate bill of sale photograph my dl and ccl incase soneonencommits a crime , i can have a truck full of guns all legal, i just have to do the background check again to be able to pick up at an ffl , nit requred to register or anything like that (Editors note: I delete the message) Subject: Glock 17 Gen 5 MOS $775 Message: Is that price for real? FC: No, that's wrong. I'll fix it right now. (I change it to $875 on the website) LOL o shit he raised it another $100, sorry man that petty ass shit doesn’t bother me. Honestly it just makes u look like a fucking joke. You’re the problem with dealers, it’s hard to find glocks this month so let’s jack the price up $300 and try to rob someone that doesn’t know shit about guns. Adam Kennedy FF/PM (name of his fire department and department phone number, sent from his department email) (I google his name and email. He's got a low serial number HK Mark 23 for sale for top dollar.) FC: I sold 10 at the gun shows for top dollar, this is my last one. Nobody's getting stock. If you want a $625-650 gun, I've got plenty of those but Glocks are selling for top dollar and then some right now. For instance, if you had a low serial number Mark 23 with everything that nobody could get - wouldn't you want top dollar for it too? I had a mk23 preban with original woodland operators bag, and original Wilcox attachments (well all but the IR) and I put it on the forums. I let people out bid themselves not post it for an absurd amount/hundreds above MSRP just because they are hard to find. The point is I’ve been in guns since around 2012, met some really genuine people and what sets that site apart is people seem to have a mutual respect for each other. I understand that you have a business and have to make a profit but if you can’t separate the two and not price gouge the absolute fuck out of very common items just because you feel you can. Then maybe that site isn’t the best place for you, 95% of the people on that site are individuals and when a business comes along and does that it’s a slap in the face. FC: So, you accept that you want top dollar because your merchandise is hard to find and are willing to accept the fact that the harder something is to find - the more people are willing to pay for it. You do it, and it's okay. I do it and I'm trying to rob someone? That's called moving the goalposts where I come from. Like it or don't like it, check gunbroker and all the other dealers - everyone's getting top dollar. I just did a show last week where I was $975 on Gen 5 19's, $775 on 43X's and $700+ on all gen 3 guns. The dealer across the aisle from me had Gen 5 34's at $1000. We're in business to make money, and people are willing to pay these prices because they're so hard to find. How do I accept that?? When I sold the mk23 I posted it for a set very fair price, people offered me more because they wanted it. And top dollar would be MSRP or close to, top dollar is NOT hundreds above MSRP. Let me ask you this, does Glock charge you more (the dealer) because they are selling a shit load of them and they are “hard to find??” Does what you pay for glocks as a FFL change as drastically as the prices you are charging based off the market? FC: You wanted, and got as much money for your rare hard to find product as you could? That's called getting top dollar! The new ford bronco is going to sell for above MSRP. For THOUSANDS more. are you going to call Ford and complain about that? Of course not.H Hundreds above MSRP is what guns are selling for right now. If you had some for sale, are you telling me you'd sell them for hundreds less than you could? I have not gotten a wholesale gun in stock in months, I have been buying guns at retail to resell. Glock does not set prices and distributors have nothing to sell me - so your question is entirely ridiculous. Do you remember the last time around 7 or 8 years ago when Colt 6920's were $2500 and SCAR 17's were $5000? That was nowhere near MSRP and I didn't hear anyone complaining. Since you don't seem to like it at all, I suggest you leave public sector employment and try to run a business and pay the bills with no product coming in wholesale. (Editors note: FC used to be a public servant. FC used to work in the fire department. FC knows that you can get in deep shit for sending profanity laced emails on city email account with email signature. I forward the email to his department chief with a polite message tactfully reminding him that all emails sent to a city email are preserved as public records.) Subject: Noveske lower Message: Would you be willing to do a one for one trade? I have a NIB Anderson lower. I’m specifically looking for one of a few specific brands of lower and Noveske happens to be one. FC: So I'm supposed to trade you even up and sell an anderson for more money? BTW. CTD got lowers back in this morning. They're andersons and they want $199 for them but I don't think I'm going to be able to get that price. (No response) Phone calls! A: Guy wants a folding bracestock. I ask him if he wants a brace or a stock. He does not know the difference. I ask him if he's building an SBR. He says he's building an SBR, specifically an SBA3. I die a little inside. B: Guy calls looking for 100 rds of 38 special for his colt python. Drives up in his tesla and hands me a ritz calrton titanium black card. $75/100 okay? No problem. He asks if I have any more at that price. I tell him as much as he wants. C: Endless calls for 9mm and 380 ammo. D: Guy calls me asking for a Glock 43X. He comes in and looks. I tell him $775 as he's holding an Amex. I say I'll do better for cash. $775 out the door. He says deal. Comes back the next week with $575 cash and I look at him funny. I paid $550 for the gun retail but he owns the Chickfila 20 miles up the road and gives me a stack of be our guest chicken sandwich coupons. I begrudgingly accept. E: Lady calls me she's headed to the range in a few hours. She needs 500 rds of 40S&W and some 380. Me: I got it. 500 rounds of 40 - $350 1: $350? Me: $350. 1: No, no no! Me: Yes, yes, yes. 1: It can't be $350! That's $350! That just can't be! Me: Welcome to 2020 1: Well the 380 ammo is cheaper right? Me: Not really. You're looking at $65 a box. 1: No, no no! Me: Nobody's got ammo right now and we're getting top dollar. That's the price, feel free to shop around. She never calls me back. F: Guy calls me asking about my Federal 115gr 9mm. Cheapest on Ammoseek is $57 a box. I don't want to be that high so I price it at $55/box. He says how much for the case. I tell him 55 times 20. He's bad at math so I tell him that's $1100 for it all. He calls me an asshole. I tell him everyone's asking me to get 9mm ammo so I'm buying it retail and marking it up. He tells me not to buy it at retail and hangs up on me. G: The gun club president calls me. the club needs a new 5.56 upper. I ask why. Someone shot 300 blackout through the old one and destroyed it. I tell them I don't have any uppers. I have complete rifles. Cheapest is $900 for an S&W sport M&P. I can hear his jaw dropping. There's other miscellany but you get the gist of it. NOW here's the meat and potatoes you've wanted! The tale of the gun show! Friday 9/11/2020 I take inventory. I'm down to about 350 guns in stock and I pack as much as I can and get it ready for the show. I've got some Sigs left, a handful of Glock and a mishmash of everything else. I head to bed early knowing full well the next show will be a good one. I bought a bunch of Glock 43X's retail. Saturday 9/12/2020 I pull chocks at 615AM. This show is about an hour down the road from my house, the last time I was there I sold nothing all weekend, broke my oakleys and vowed never to return. This time is gonna be different, I said to myself. At 7AM I walk in and I start loading into the show. It's a small venue in the middle of MAGA country. Everyone wearing red hats and trump train shirts. In a few hours the doors will open and we are off to the races. I will do hour blocks instead of my previous play by play for simplicity. 9AM: Slow start, the show is spread out across TWO buildings so they route people into the other side and it takes them about 30 minutes to make their way into the big room. First sale of the day is my last Sig 365. For $700. It takes an hour and a half to get his background check back. 10AM: Guy points at an FNS 40C and wants a deal. I make him a deal at $525 cash out the door. He says he'll come back and think about it a bit. I sell a shield for $500. I sell a Glock 43X for $775. I sell a Glock 43 for $700. For some reason everyone is calling me Daniel. It takes me an hour to realize it's because I'm wearing a gray Daniel Defense polo. 11AM: FNS40 guy is back. He says it's a deal. I hand him a clipboard. he hands me an already filled out 4473 like another dealer rejected his sale. It's folded over on the long side and I tell him to fill out my form in front of me. 10 minutes later he hands me the pre filled out folded form thinking that I'm stupid. You gotta be shitting me. I park his ass in a chair hand him a pen and tell him to start writing. He fills it out. I enter in his background check and it does not come back right away. He gets antsy. 12PM: FNS 40 guy wants his money back. I refund it and keep $100 for me. I grab my tablet and someone has swiped right on my bumble. We begin chatting and I ask her if she wants to go to dinner. She's a little older, in her 40's and works for a bank. What the hell, why not. Someone asks me what it takes to suppress his beretta 92. I tell him he needs a threaded barrel. They run $250. Someone overhears me and brings by his S&W 5906 and expects me to get a threaded barrel for $250. Guy asks me to bring the threaded barrel tomorrow. I say sure. 1PM: Lady comes by and asks me if I have any 5.7's. She's on the phone reading down my inventory. I ask her if the gun is for her or her friend. She says for her. I show her the 5.7 on the table and roll my eyes a bit. 2PM: 5.7 lady comes by with her butch lesbian lover. She tells me its a deal and I hand her the clipboard. She fills everything out with lots of errors. I get her background check in and I tell her $1375 Her jaw drops. She was looking at the FNS 9mm for $575 next to it and didn't think that 5.7 pistols were $1375. She coughs reeking of weed. I void the sale. Guy walks up asking me for 70% silencers. I just laugh. 3PM: Another guy comes over asking me if I got a 5.7. I tell him yes. He says he's got $1000 right now for a 5.7. I tell him I'll take $1000 as a down payment. He laughs and is adamant that I take this $1000 for a 5.7 tagged at $1375. I ask him if he's got cash and all his ID and everything. He's on the phone it's actually for a friend of his. I ask him if his friend can get here before the show closes at 5. His friend has no CWL so his wife has to buy it but he's going to pay for it. This guy is barking up the wrong tree. I go back and help someone else. He's looking at a Springfield XD I've brought and asks me if I'm making any deals. I tell him we're not doing a lot of discounting at the show. He shrugs and says he tried. Another guy asks me for a Glock 43X. I walk him over to the stack and show him the tag at $775. He scoffs at me and walks away. 4PM: Show starts slowing down. I write up a Sig P238 Tribal and a P938 BRG for some customers at $700 each. I write up a S&W M&P15 sport for $900 as my last sale of the day. The lady was super nice and understanding when I pointed out the errors on her 4473. 5PM: Time to go home! I dump off some transfers to another dealer and hit the road. It's an hour to get back home. 6PM: I take a shower, shave and get to the restaurant for dinner. 7PM: I'm at the restaurant waiting at the table and I discover that the woman that said she was in her 40's is actually a 58 year old grandma of 2. Someone shoot me. She says she's not that hungry and proceeds to order soup, salad, a martini, an espresso and dessert. She's ordered $65 in F&B to my $35 steak. This was a complete waste of an evening. My depression worsens and not even a bowl of mint chocolate chip can break me out of this funk. My will to live is eroding by the minute. I fall asleep at midnight and set my alarm for 747AM. I make a mental note to move up my therapist. Sunday August 16th 747AM. Wake up, take a swig of orange juice and run down to the deli and grab a sandwich and get down to the show. I grab a threaded barrel for a Beretta 92 on my way down. Note: The guy never shows up for that barre. 10AM: Get to the show and uncover my tables and get cranking. It's a slow start to the day. My first sale is a Springfield XD. The show goes on and I write up an FNS for someone. The customer writes the check out payable to HK NO COMPROMISE. I look at them confused. FC: Why is this check made out to HK? 1: That's what it says on your shirt, HK NO COMPROMISE - that's the name of your company, right? FC: sigh 11AM: Guy wants a can without a tax stamp. 5 12PM: Someone walks over. Points at my stack of silencers 1: I can't pick one of those up here! FC: You got two arms don't you? 1: I mean I can't buy one here! FC: If you got money you can buy one! 1: You're a real smartass you know that! FC: Beats being a dumbass! The peanut gallery laughs at our exchange. 1PM: Guy wants to buy a Walther P22. Fills out the front sheet of the 4473. Satisfied with his answer, he turns the page along the perforation, rips it off and proudly hands the top sheet to me. I die a little bit inside. 2PM: 7 different husband/wife combos ask me for shield EZ pistols. I write up my last M&P 15 sport I brought to the show for $900. It's a good day! I debated bringing another but I figured selling two for the weekend would be plenty. 3PM: The lady that bought that S&W M&P15 yesterday? She wants another one. I have three left on the shelf. I take her money and tell her I'll meet her at the show next week and she says no problem and does all her paperwork. u/throwawayfire343 's coronavirus infected ass shows up and needles me on a gun. 1: How much do you want for this $150 gun? FC: About 350 1: really FC: Gimme $200 and fill the goddamn form right 1: deal! I take his money and wrap up a few other folks and get ready to pack up and head home. He does the form right much to my chagrin. 4PM: Show is closed. I start packing up. I snag 500 rds of 9mm off the dealer across the show. He started with a full pallet. Most of it is gone. Price? $500/thousand. I am packed up and on the road in a little under an hour. 5PM: Homeward bound........I wish I was........HOMEWARD BOUND.............. I hit the truck stop for some diesel and a cold fountain drink. 630PM: I get back to my desk and dump off a fucking STACK of 4473's. I make a bank drop for the cash and I unload and head back home. I'm starving, I go grocery shopping and grab some comestibles. I cook myself dinner and head home. Monday September 14th 10AM: My back is out and my depression is worse than ever. I don't know what hurts more, my back or my brain. I head in and get my 4473's worked on from the show. 11AM: Guy asks me to get some 9mm ammo for him held until after work. No problem. He says he'll be here at 445 after he gets out off at 430. He works around the corner. 12PM: Lunchtime. It's Chicken Bacon Ranch day at the market. I'm starving. I grab my keys and get ready to leave when I get a call from a lady from the gun club. She wants one of my last Sig 938's. I tell her to come by, I'll delay lunch for her. 1PM: Laura shows up and spends 45 minutes with me trying to decide on which 938 she wants. She has no intention of shooting this gun she just wants one in case antifa shows up. She leaves and says she will come back in 45 minutes. Great, I can go to lunch now. 2PM: It try to go to lunch. I am not successful. Laura calls me asking me more questions and tells me she has another friend wanting the same gun. I tell her I will put my lunch on hold and she can come on by. She and her friend debate Sig 938's for a while and each of them buy a gun. I got a twofer! Woo! This calls for a celebration called lunch. 3PM: I get a call from a semi regular. This guy buys a gun or two a year. He's getting his concealed license and does not want the government to know he's buying guns. So he's sending his wife in to do the 4473 for his birthday present, a Wilson CQB 1911 they've purchased off gunbroker. I tell him great, send her over and I'll get her paperwork done. I get ready to go to lunch. The phone rings, Laura and her friend want more of my time. Fine. I will put my lunch on hold. Come on over. 4PM: Laura and her friend come over and Laura suggests that I give each of them a few Sig 938 7 rd pinky extension mags for free since they just bought two guns. I look at them in great pain. Women. They make the highs higher and the lows more frequent. I'm sorta in a woman hating mood after this week but I don't want to take it out on them. I explain politely that NOBODY is getting free goods right now. if you want mags, I have three left. They spent 25 minutes arguing with me and then they decide to buy all three mags. Great. Terrific. I'm going to lunch now. Your business is appreciated now GTFO. The guy that wanted me to reserve 9mm ammo for him? Yeah he no showed. 5PM: Beef jerky lunch time. I get my keys and get ready to walk out the door. The wife of Wilson Combat buyer is running errands and can be over here. Sure, come on down. I'll be here. She does all her paperwork and we talk for 2 hours about how autistic you all say I am and how not autistic she says I am. Nice lady. She brought me gummy bears. I tell her I am clearly on the spectrum because I behave and think exactly like her autistic son. She fails to believe me. 7PM: I can finally go have lunch! I go to the Olive Garden for lunch. 815PM: I get home from the OG. This is not going well. My colon does not like the pasta and breadsticks. I spend the next hour and a half making three trips to the throne. This fucking week. And it's only sunday. God damn. I take a tylenol PM and sleep it off. Tuesday September 15th 10AM: I get in and start catching up on vendor calls and paperwork. 11AM: UPS rolls in with a wilson and some piece of shit suppressor from some company. I call Lisa and tell her that the package is here and she can pick it up anytime. She says she will be right over. 12PM: Lisa gets her gun and thanks me with some things she got at walgreens. Red hots, and pens. I laugh. I tell her it's fine. She's confused. Her autistic son always liked Red Hots and pens. 1PM: I swing over to the deli and it's Monday. They have hot browns today. I love a hot brown. I grab one and check in on facebook telling the world of my discovery. So many great job poopin memes and comments ensue. 2PM: I call the guy who's got the el cheapo 556 can. He's pissed. That can was supposed to be sent to another dealer across town. I tell him his options. A: I can do his form 4 and charge him my hourly. B: I can ship it back to the vendor and charge him my hourly. C: I can ship it to the dealer across town and charge him my hourly. He's PISSED and tells me to do the forms for him. I tell him email me all the info and I'll get it done. I get an email in GMAIL CONFIDENTIAL MODE. What's CONFIDENTIAL MODE? It's a self destructing email you can't reply to, forward or cut and paste from - which makes this useless since I have to cut and paste all the info he's given me. I tell him I need the data in a different format. He yells at me about PII and stuff and I offer to do the form 4 in front of him. He relents and emails me what I need. It's missing a birthday. No biggie. I email him a draft and he says it looks lfine. 3PM: The guy comes by and he's pissed at the vendor and takes it out on me. I tell him if he does not want to do the forms from me, I can send it to the dealer across town. He's mad as hell and I've discounted my rate to $100 as a goodwill gesture. 1: You're charging me $100? FC: Yes 1: But you're not doing anything. FC: Here's the checklist. 1: The other place did my photos, fingerprints and everything and charged me $100. FC: Great. I'm not spending $8000 on a fingerprint scanner to make it back $100 at a time. 1: So you're not doing anything. FC: I did these forms correctly as you asked. 1: But you didn't even do my fingerprints! Or my passport photos! What the hell am I paying you for? FC: Why'd they send the item here/ 1: Hell if I know! You should call them and find out! FC: You want me to call them? 1: Well you dealers have a special phone number and email. They won't answer my calls or my emails. FC: What makes you think they're going to answer mine? 1: You're a dealer! You have a special back office phone number to reach them that I don't have, right? FC: Are you kidding me? 1: No! You all have that special communication system that the public has no access to! FC: Gimme your $100 and get these forms reviewed, I've got another customer to help in a bit. 1: You mean I gotta mail it out too! The other place did that for me! FC: You want me to mail it? I'll mail it. Get the prints done, get the photos taken and get the form filled out and I'll mail it. 1: The other place answered all the questions for me! FC: I. DON'T. CARE. 1: I am really upset about all this you're charging me the same money and you're doing no work! FC: You want this can? 1: Yeah FC: Then follow my instructions. He pulls out three credit cards with damaged magnetic stripes that won't work. I manually key the card and I'm now working for $96.50 dealing with the biggest pain in the ass I've seen since operation machinegun salvage in 2019. 4PM: I have to go to fedex to drop off today's orders. 1000 rds of 22 leave the building for $189.48. A bunch of mags to the west coast and a Sig P220 are leaving. 5PM: Make it to Fedex where I say hi to Cathy and the gang. I swing by the market on the way home and grab some shredded romaine and a thin cut top sirloin. 545PM: Now I told you this story was a tale of TWO grandmas. Here's the second. I get a call from my attorney buddy Eddie, my partner at the consulting company. He got a call from a lady needing help with some ATF Forms. He knew it wasn't his area of expertise and wanted to know if I could do it. I said send the details my way. He tells me it's an older lady and to expect an email. Moments later I get an email from him. Subject: Forms for Karen Witherspoon Message: Will, attached is ATF correspondence from ATF to Karen, I think you can fix this. Thanks! I look at the attachment. NOTICE OF TAKING DEPOSITION DUCES TECUM - State of Louisiana vs Billy Bob Ray Thibodeaux FC: Eddie, I got your deposition notice not the ATF forms Eddie: Whoops FC: If that's the worst thing that happens this week it's not a bad week. Eddie: She knows you're charging her I didn't give her a price. FC: Lemme look at it and see what we got. 6PM: I call Karen and ask her some details. Her husband was a former licensee/SOT and left a machinegun behind when he died. She did ATF Form 5 and got some errors and needs help fixing it. Just as I'm on the phone with her Eddie emails me the packet. It's bad and riddled with errors. Out of 20 fields that all need to be filled out correctly, 12 are wrong. And not a little wrong. A LOT wrong. I won't get into it here but I might in a separate post. ATF wants the forms back at their facility in 30 days. The mailing date was 2 weeks ago. Which means these forms need to be corrected RIGHT THE FUCK NOW and sent out. Oh and she's got no fingerprint cards. I tell her that I can drop everything I'm doing this evening, go over everything with a fine tooth comb and have this done in a few hours and I can drop them off tomorrow. She says if I can make a house call that would be good since she has furniture movers coming to empty their house in the morning. I tell her no problem. $350 and I'll see her tomorrow. I run down all the forms and fix everything. I do a public records search and pull court filings for the probate and print them off and enclose them as ATF requested. $350 for basically an hour's worth of work isn't bad. There's a steak/bottle of wine split for Eddie in there since it was his lead. 8PM: I call Karen back and tell her I've got everything done but ATF needs a copy of the will. She says she has it. I got everything else they asked off the clerk's website. She's super impressed. I tell her there's a reason Eddie called me. 9PM: Time to cook dinner. My phone is about to die. Just as I plug it in I get a call from u/fat_italian_stallion He NEVER calls me unless something's up. We had a quick chat over the weekend at the gun show that went something like this FC: So that's how I got catfished by a grandma on bumble FIS: LOL that is epic bad. I'm in New Orleans for a week on vacation with the gf FC: The psycho one? FIS: You know it. FC: If you need bail money let me know FIS: I just might! That was Sunday morning. It's tuesday night. My phone dies as I try talking to him. I switch to my landline and call him. FC: What up? FIS: I need a solid FC: How bad is it this time? FIS: Can I sleep at your house tonight? She went nuts again and attacked me. FC: I told you not to get invovled with her didn't I? FIS: She's hot! FC: You know I'm like 3 hours away from you right? FIS: Yeah I got a half tank of gas. FC: Go fill it, here's the address. See you around midnight. You hungry? FIS: Starving. FC: I was getting ready to fix dinner. I'll see you at midnight. Get here when you get here. 9PM-1145PM: I fix up the guest suite and prepare dinner. I run to the Target near my house since they close at 10 and grab a few more things. I get back just before 10 and I prepare to fire up the grill and get a steak going, salad and a fresh ravioli dish drowned in Rao's tomato basil sauce is on the menu. Steak hits the fire at 1130 and is resting by 1145. I plate everything and have it on the table at midnight. 1145PM: I get some spare towels and hotel soaps and shampoos. I head out to the driveway and turn on all my lights and leave the garage door open. I set a lawn chair up and crack open a large bag of boom chicka pop poprcorn and await the arrival of one u/fat_italian_stallion 1204AM: u/fat_italian_stallion rolls up. I've got guns and roses "Used to love her" playing on the ipad FC: sup? FIS: Long day. FC: Dinner's on the table. Lets eat. Wednesday September 16th We eat and go to sleep. fat_italian_stallion does not know I have slid my spare ipad into the guest suite on the nightstand. Did you know you can set an alarm on an ipad to instead of making a noise to play a song? 757AM: The ipad alarm wakes up fat_italian_stallion. The song? A little band called Confederate Railroad blasting "I like my women a little on the trashy side." He'll have to tell you the rest of the story. 9AM: I chat with fat italian and we chat a bit skipping breakfast. He has decided to leave this godforsaken state and put some miles between him and the psycho. I don't blame him one bit. 10AM: Breakfast! I throw on a charcoal canali and hit the chickfila drive thru for some breakfast chicken biscuits. I head to my desk and get some paperwork and some calls done. 11AM: I get a call from my attorney buddy Sam. He wants to know how many laws his client who has sent in a Form 1 and not notified the CLEO has broken. I explain I was just having that debate with someone on the internet! It's not a big deal but still kinda a big deal. Our consensus is that it's not count one on the indictment but it could be count five or six. 12PM: Lunchtime. I'm not hungry so I skip lunch. I head to meet with the grandma with the MG and I go over all her new forms that she needs to get fixed with fingeprint cards and my notes. She's super appreciative and gives me $350 in cash. She can't find the will. I call her attorney that I know and he's not picking up. I tell her see if she can get an original copy of the will from the clerks office or from the attorneys office, they normally have a copy. I ask her what plans she has for the gun. I mean, what's a grandma supposed to do with a registered Colt M16? All her husbands friends wanted it and they all offered her the same amount so she didn't need it and decided to sell it. She's taking the $5000 she's getting and going on an Alaskan cruise with the grandkids after the world calms down. I shrug. She should have called me. 2PM: Back at my desk, I call the judge's chambers that's doing the probate. Judge Smith LOVES the 308 that I got him a few years ago and is super pleased with my services since he didn't tell the wife about his purchase and I had just gotten a damaged case of 308 PMC Bronze that I made him a hell of a deal on that UPS wrote off. I tell the JA that ATF probably isn't going to call but in case they do just be ready. She's super glad that I told her ahead of time so she can be ready. Judge Smith is retiring in a few months and he's got some time in the schedule so she patches me through and we catch up for a little bit. I am told that they're going to try to do a COVID compliant socially distanced retirement disrobing party but it's all up in the air. I say if you all need someone to bring potato salad to let me know. As a stalwart of the legal community for many years, lots of folks know the judge so it's well deserved after 20+ years on the bench. As I am also well known in the legal communty the least I can do is show up with a bottle of red for the guy that's signed hundreds of form 4's for me over the years. 3PM: I ship out a few more pistols and sell an M1A scout squad to a guy in California. Not a bad day. 4PM: I'm done for this week. Between the gun show and getting catfished and everything I've earned some time off. I think I'm gonna take the rest of the week off. The phone rings and a guy wants some 9mm ammo. I sell him 500 rds at $375 plus shipping. Thursday September 17th to Friday September 18th: I wrote this for you all to read. PS - and this is how you do a "week in the life" thread, you fucking imposter. https://www.reddit.com/guns/comments/i759qj/a_week_in_the_life_of_your_favorite_firearm/
Last updated: Sunday, 20 September 2020 - 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC)
Beta heads westward toward Texas
An intense burst of deep convection developed near Beta's low-level center earlier this evening, spawning a formative mid-level eye. This abrupt increase in activity also appears to have created an avenue for which dry mid-level air could penetrate deep into the cyclone's circulation and the eye quickly started to fall apart almost as quickly as it developed. Animated infrared imagery has depicted a substantial increase in convective cloud top temperatures over the past couple of hours and Doppler radar imagery from Houston indicates that the eye feature is completely open toward the north. The outer rain bands ahead of Beta reached the shores of Texas earlier this afternoon and have been bringing locally heavy rain showers to southeastern Texas all afternoon. Intensity estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis and aerial reconnaissance data from a recent U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters mission into the storm indicate that Beta's maximum one-minute sustained winds have held steady since the previous advisory. While maximum one-minute sustained winds may have briefly increased within the burst of convection earlier this afternoon, they appear to have returned to 50 knots (60 miles per hour). Further analysis of the aerial reconnaissance data indicates that the cyclone has considerable vertical tilt and intensification is not believed to be occurring. Beta is currently moving slightly more quickly toward the west this afternoon as a building subtropical ridge to the northeast pushes the cyclone toward Texas.
Last updated: Sunday, 20 September 2020 - 4:00 PM CDT (21:00 UTC)
Beta could come close to hurricane strength as it heads westward
A brief decrease in shear allowed the earlier bust of deep convection to develop. Beta continues to move west-northwestward through a marginally supportive environment where warm sea-surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow conditions are offset by dry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone and moderate southwesterly shear (15 to 20 knots). Beta is not expected to undergo any additional strengthening as it continues to approach the Texas coastline over the next couple of days.
Beta will make a sharp northeastward turn as it makes landfall on Tuesday
Tropical Storm Beta is expected to continue along a west-northwestward track through Tuesday morning, making landfall in a fairly sparsely populated area of the Texas coastline between Corpus Christi and Galveston. A mid-latitude trough sweeping eastward across the central United States is expected to cause Beta to abruptly turn toward the northeast, moving along the coast of Texas and crossing into Louisiana during the late morning hours on Tuesday. Moderate shear, drier mid-level air, and frictional effects from prolonged land interaction will prevent restrengthening, causing Beta to ultimately weaken to tropical depression strength as it crosses into Louisiana.
Heavy rainfall will spread to the lower Mississippi Valley late in the week
Beta's slow movement along the Texas coastline this week presents a significant flooding risk for large portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and the lower Mississippi Valley through the next several days. Through Friday morning, a total of 6 to 12 inches of rainfall is expected to fall across a region which stretches along the northwestern to north-central Gulf Coast from north of Corpus Christi eastward to south-central Louisiana. Some isolated areas could see as much as 15 inches of rainfall. As the mid-latitude trough begins to accelerate Beta toward the northeast in the latter half of the week, heavy rainfall will extend over the Texarkana region and the lower Mississippi Valley, where 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is expected to occur.
Feature: Neither Here nor There: A Study of Dual Enrollment Students’ Hybrid Identities in First-Year Composition [FREE ACCESS] Erin Costello Wecker and Patty Wilde This article shares findings from a CCCC-funded grant that focuses on a dual enrollment (DE) program in Washington called Running Start. This model invites high schoolers to take college courses on a college campus. Instructors are frequently advised to treat Running Start participants “as if they were any other college student,” yet as our large-scale survey suggests, these students have complex hybrid identities that warrant deeper consideration. Without diluting academic rigor, we call for an enhanced understanding of the “funds of knowledge” (González, Molle, and Amanti) that high schoolers bring to first-year composition in the spirit of congruous inclusivity.
Feature: Bringing the Community to the Classroom: Using Campus-Wide Collaborations to Foster Belonging for Dual Enrollment Students Subscription Only Angela Ridinger-Dotterman, Regina A. Rochford, and Susan Hock This article describes the experience of three professors teaching dual enrollment BTECH Early College High School students at Queensborough Community College, and our incorporation of departmental and campus-wide collaborative learning experiences as an intervention for student success and engagement. We present our collaborative approach to course design, culminating in the Upstanders Project, a multimodal research writing assignment incorporating on-campus cultural and learning resources. We argue that this approach led to an immersive learning experience for dual enrollment students that strengthened their ties to the college community.
Feature: Closing the Gap? A Study into the Professional Development of Concurrent Enrollment Writing Teachers in Ohio Subscription Only Christine Denecker Dual Enrollment (DE) composition classrooms provide a space in which college instructors and high school English teachers can “consciously work to inform one another’s teaching and ultimately our students’ learning and readiness for college-level writing” (Sehulster 343). This multisite, mixed-method case study of 14 DE writing teachers, in partnership with two-year and four-year institutions, investigates how training and support of composition instructors affects the rigor and quality of DE writing instruction. Findings highlight best practices for professional development of DE instructors and suggest means for closing the gap between high school and college writing expectations.
Feature: Dual/Dueling Roles: Helping Dual Enrollment Faculty Navigate a Complex Professional Identity Subscription Only Robyn Russo Faculty teaching dual credit/concurrent enrollment college composition courses face the pull of dual and dueling roles. To gain a deeper understanding of how faculty navigate their professional identity and advocate for students, this article offers qualitative, single-site case study of one large program. After a discussion of the unique challenges and possibilities for two-year college writing faculty, generally, and dual enrollment faculty, specifically, in defining and claiming a professional identity, the study explores the limits to dual faculty's sense of professional identity and how this affects their agency, ending with suggestions for a more collaborative vision of the profession.
Feature: Finding Value, Building Value: A Dual Enrollment Model That Works Subscription Only Joshua Stokdyk, Sarah Z. Johnson, and Jen Grandone When done well, high school-based dual enrollment (DE) partnerships offer unique opportunities for mutually beneficial collaborations between secondary and postsecondary faculty—collaborations that benefit the DE students, the high school and college faculty, both institutions, and even non-DE students. With an emphasis on building collegial professional relationships, we outline the high school-based DE program we created, highlighting the value we find in the high school instructors, the high school classroom, the type of English courses we offer, and the many opportunities for meaningful professional development among our team of 30 DE teachers from over 20 high schools in our college’s district.
Feature: Mapping Dual Credit for College Writing: Signposts from the Oregon Trail Subscription Only Jordan Terriere-Dobrioglo and Vicki Tolar Burton This article locates and describes different versions of dual credit for first-year composition as they occur across Oregon, using publicly available data from the state Department of Education, information from the statewide Oregon Writing and English Advisory Committee, and relevant scholarship. We examine state and national dual credit standards, varying teacher qualification requirements, professional development and mentoring, curriculum and outcomes, and assessment. The article concludes with recommendations in these areas and a call for financial transparency in the funding of dual credit in Oregon and an invitation to researchers in other states to map dual credit in their own states.
Feature: Access and Stratification: One City, Two Dual Enrollment Programs Subscription Only Clancy Ratliff and Daniel Smith This essay is an examination of two dual enrollment programs in one city: a two-year college and a four-year R2 university in Louisiana, where state law has mandated the expansion of dual enrollment partnerships as a means to increase the college graduation rate. Without having a particular agreement, the two institutions have gone about their partnerships quite differently. We analyze these similarities and differences and argue for the need for closer collaboration among two-year and four-year institutions.
2020.09.18 18:05 MisterPibb9624/M from Louisiana (Dear Data)
Okay, so I heard about this project some data analysts did with each other. One lived in New York, the other in England. They would spend a week analyzing something about themselves, and on a post card, they would draw a chart with the data. But they weren’t making normal charts. It was all basically art. The rules are simple:
Find a shared thing to analyze. (Eg. doors walked through, number of times you said thank you that week, etc)
On one side of the post card, find a creative way to illustrate your data.
On the other side, give instructions on how to read said data.
I’d like to do that with someone. There’s a whole website about it that does a lot better at explaining than me. It just sounds fun, and you get post cards! Personally, I just want to exercise the creative and analytical parts of my brain at the same time. The further away you live, the better. Gotta get those post cards scuffed for the full effect.
2020.09.16 22:09 WizardMamaDoes anyone know what time Tulane and/or LSU update their respective COVID-19 Dashboards?
Tulane states that their dashboard would be updated daily but it hasn't been updated since Monday the 14th.
LSU states they update their Dashboard on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday hasn't been updated since Monday the 14th.
Does anyone know what time these schools update their COVID dashboards? If you have the scoop on that info or know someone I can contact please let me know! Additionally, if there are any other college/ or universities in Louisiana you’d like the data to be covered, please post their dashboard info below.
2020.09.16 15:00 podcastsmodDaily Indie Podcast for 2020-09-16
Welcome to the daily Random /podcasts podcast! Here is today's show! This podcast is from smallstuffshow **[NEWS, SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY] Sample Size [The 2020 Hurricane Season](https://ift.tt/3iBgX0T SFW Listen to hosts Samantha Spiers and Cameron Boozarjomehri discuss how two storms, Tropical Storm Marco and Hurricane Laura, unexpectedly hit Louisiana days apart! Discussion includes how hurricanes form, why this hurricane season has been so active, and what to do when sheltering from a hurricane. News, politics, and society: they're all bad at science. Get a fresh take on the science and data that drives the news stories you read every day. Note: This podcast was selected at random from the Weekly Episode Thread (2020/09/14) - Share Your Podcast, Request Feedback, Discover New Ones from /podcasting. The audio has not been screened for quality or content. Podcast selection may be occasionally checked against being recently featured.
2020.09.16 03:46 evilgiraffemonkeyDo you know what would be nice? If everyone who is freaking out about Cuties freaked out the exact same amount at the fact that there are on average 13 000 child marriages a year in America, some as young as ten years old, through legal loopholes
At least 207,468 minors married in the US between 2000 and 2015, according to data compiled by Unchained At Last, a group campaigning to abolish child marriage, and investigative documentary series Frontline. The true figure is likely to be much higher because 10 states provided no or incomplete statistics.
The majority are 16/17, but
The youngest wedded were three 10-year-old girls in Tennessee who married men aged 24, 25 and 31 in 2001. The youngest groom was an 11-year-old who married a 27-year-old woman in the same state in 2006. Children as young as 12 were granted marriage licences in Alaska, Louisiana and South Carolina, while 11 other states allowed 13-year-olds to wed. More than 1,000 children aged 14 or under were granted marriage licences. Most states set the age of sexual consent between 16 and 18 and a person can be charged with statutory rape for having sex with a minor. Yet many children were granted marriage licences, approved by judges, before they could legally consent to sex. Only 14 per cent of the children who wedded were married to other minors. Most married a partner aged 18 to 29, with 60 per cent aged between 18 or 20.
Like, if you actually care about child sexual exploitation, surely this is more important than some movie made in France. Surely if there was, say, a movement that professed to care deeply about child sexual exploitation, they would start a campaign to pressure politicians to enact laws against this shit, right? Surely they wouldn't only spend their time screaming on facebook about how every single democrat is a pedophile based on a screenshot of a 4chan post, RIGHT?? Surely they at least somewhat care about child sexual exploitation and don't just enjoy getting high off their own apophenia, RIGHT??? Anyways, I'm not American, but y'all (can I say that?) might wanna do something about this instead of angrily typing at each other about which political party has more pedophiles in them. Just a thought! EDIT: Check out https://www.unchainedatlast.org/. (This link was sent to me privately, I haven't looked into the organization super thoroughly yet, make sure you do before donating/getting involved with them).
2020.09.16 01:03 500scnds[Table] r/AskHistorians — I am Dr. William Quinn, co-author of 'Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles', here to discuss the history of financial bubbles and crises. AMA!
Understandably, bicycles became much more popular, and by 1896 they were a genuine craze.
The price of bicycles themselves didn't have a bubble - they were already at a very high level - but they did crash after the boom. The bubble was in the shares of bicycle companies. A small number of existing bicycle companies suddenly reaped enormous profits, and their shares suddenly rose, sometimes by a factor of 10, making some investors rich overnight.
As Charles Kindleberger said, "There is nothing so disturbing to one's well-being and judgement as to see a friend get rich." So a few investors getting rich attracted what we'd describe as 'speculative' investors to the bicycle share market - people who buy things because they think the price will go up, rather than because they think it's a good company. Speculation is self-fulfilling - people buy because they think the price will rise, but people buying causes the price to rise. By the spring of 1897, bicycle companies were trading at a far higher price than their profits could justify, especially since the fashion for cycling was starting to fade. There was no "crash" as such - we describe it as a slow puncture - but by 1900 cycle shares had fallen by about 80%, and the vast majority of companies were bankrupt.
The survivors went on to become household names, though. Dunlop, Raleigh, and Rover were all bicycle bubble companies.
This might remind you of the dot-com bubble - the general story is pretty similar!
Didn't the Wright Brothers build bikes? Did they already have the bike shop in 1896? Did they get into airplanes because the bike market crashed? This may be a modern question: Can you compare the bike bubble to electric car bubble?
I've heard that they did. Quite possibly they got into airplanes because the bicycle boom crash - that's how Riley and Rover got into cars. I don't know, though. The American bicycle boom around the same time wasn't part of the project - that's another PhD for someone else to do!
Thank you Dr. Quinn for taking the time. From all the historical bubbles you’ve studied, what were some qualitative and quantitative commonalities in most (if not all) of them? Do you see the same symptoms in today’s world?
1. Abundant money and/or debt - people have lots of money to invest with. Bonus points if it's someone else's money. Usually this means low interest rates, but it can also mean banks have eased lending standards.
2. Marketability - assets are easy to buy and sell. Most bubbles are preceded by sudden increases in marketability, such as the conversion of untradeable debt into tradeable equity in 1720, or the use of mortgage-backed securities in the 2000s.
3. Speculation - people buy assets for no other reason than because they think the price will go up.
4. A "spark" - something that creates an initial price rise, attracting the speculative investors. We divide these into technological sparks e.g. the dot-com bubble, and political sparks e.g. ~all housing bubbles, the 1720 bubbles.
Do I see the same symptoms in today's world? YES. Interest rates are low, economies are loaded up with debt, and the internet makes everything much easier to buy, sell, and speculate in.
This is why we think bubbles are so much more common than they used to be. Between 1929 and the 1980s there were pretty much no major bubbles - a lot of financial economists started to think they were a myth. Since then we've had the Japanese stock and housing bubbles, the dot-com, housing bubbles all over the place, Chinese stock market bubbles in 2007 and 2015, the crypto bubble in 2017. So I expect we'll keep seeing bubbles happen pretty frequently, though it's very hard to say what they'll be in.
the below is a reply to the above
Thanks for this answer Dr. Quinn. A follow up question to your response on historically common characteristics between bubbles. Are there common actions that economies have historically taken to correct course and turn a potentially malignant bubble to something more benign?
The record of governments during bubbles is... not great. Some would argue that the Australian government did a good job of keeping house prices under control during the 2000s. But the German and US governments tried to tackle bubbles in the 1920s by raising interest rates, and in both cases this made things far, far worse.
We've definitely got better at managing the immediate aftermath of bubbles, largely by protecting financial institutions and credit channels. OTOH, the bursting of a bubble often reveals systemic problems that need to be reformed in the medium or long term, and we might even have got worse at fixing those.
the below is another reply to the original answer
What would you say are good examples (if any exist) of bubbles which didn't burst - situations where everything you outline above was true, but in the end nothing much happened and the market just continued rising steadily or stayed leveled? In other words, if what you describe above is a "bubble test", what are some famous false positives?
So say we divide bubbles into political and technological. A political bubble might never burst because the government finds a way to sustain high prices indefinitely. London after 2008 might fit this description.
I don't know of any technological bubbles that didn't burst, but a lot of them burst much later than people expected them to. Over the course of the 1990s, for example, internet stocks were a good investment for much longer than they were a bad one.
the below is another reply to the original answer
Did the crypto bubble really have enough of an impact on the economy to classify it as a proper bubble, as opposed to a twenty first century tulip mania?
You might be right - the crypto bubble had very little economic impact. It did involve financial assets though, rather than commodities. I think it has more in common with stock market bubbles than with the tulip mania, but it could be argued either way.
the below is another reply to the original answer
Wouldn’t the progressive income tax rates in this time period also account for the lack of bubble bursting?
There was an active effort by governments to restrain capital at that time, which kept money, debt, and marketability at low levels. Progressive income tax rates were a part of that wider effort, but I don't think they were the most important part - these were the days of capital controls and strict regulation on how much risk banks could take.
Hi! Thanks for doing this. My personal interests lie in history much more ancient than 1720s, so I tend to pay attention more to things like Mansa Musa's trip to Cairo and the inflation that occurred as a result of his largess, and the impact of Spanish gold on the Imperialist-era economy of Europe, but you're saying that the large fall in price comes with no "obvious cause" for it to count as a proper boom-and-bust cycle. Given my shaky understanding of the American housing crisis and my even looser understanding of how Roman apartments worked during the Republic (and how many records the Romans left), I'm a little surprised that there isn't more evidence of ancient boom-and-bust cycles. Do you have any speculation for why this is apparently a modern phenomena?
It's a great question. The Mansa Musa trip was one of my favourite things I learned in my very first course in economic history.
I do think there were bubbles before 1720, but there really isn't much direct evidence of them. Partly this is because direct evidence is hard to find, and there aren't too many ancient financial historians around to do the work. But it's also probably fair to say that bubbles were much, much rarer pre-1720 than they are today.
We think this is because most assets weren't marketable enough. The appeal of investing in a bubble is getting rich quick - you buy it today, the price goes up 200% tomorrow, then you sell it and profit. But this only works if the law lets you do it, it's very easy to find a buyer and seller, and the whole process isn't too much hassle. So, for example, if there's no secondary market for government debt, you can't really get a bubble in government debt. And before 1720, that's how things were.
But 1720 marked the widespread adoption of financial assets that could easily be bought and sold. It could have marked the start of a new era of semi-frequent bubbles... except that after the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, governments quickly decided these assets were a terrible idea and most of them were banned. So we didn't see another bubble until 1825 (or arguably the Canal Mania of the 1790s, but the government really kept a lid on that one).
Thank you for stopping by AH, Dr Quinn. I am curious as to why you feel that the Dutch tulip mania "doesn't count" as a bubble. Other authors, such as Kindleberger, consider that it was, and I've always found the efforts made by writers such as Garber to suggest that the pricing of bulbs in the 1630s was fundamentally rational to be less than convincing. Can you elaborate on your thinking in this regard?
Ha, I knew I'd get pulled up on that!
Tulips are consumption goods, so we can't really say whether their price is rational or not, just like we can't make that kind of call about, say, fine art.
That said, Garber denies that they became objects of speculation, which I find completely implausible. So even though it's untestable, I do think it was probably a bubble.
It definitely wasn't a major bubble though, because it was so completely economically inconsequential. We don't see anything happening in economic or price data, we don't see any bank failures. We don't even see a blip in the number of recorded bankruptcies, which suggests that participation in the market must have been extremely small (which makes sense, since the prices of the bulbs were prohibitive for all but the very rich).
So it's really just a bit of a curiosity, similar to the bubbles in beanie babies or baseball cards during the 20th century. It's just not in the same category as era-defining events like the 2000s housing bubble or the Wall Street Crash.
Hi Doctor Quinn, thank you for doing this AMA! During the earliest bubbles, did anyone recognise that the price increases were unsustainable? Did people predict the bubble bursting?
Yes, lots. Daniel Defoe and Jonathan Swift were two notable bubble-sceptics during the South Sea Bubble. Lord Hutcheson, an MP, wrote an excellent financial analysis of the South Sea scheme explaining why it was a terrible investment.
I think the majority of people are usually sceptics during a bubble. But if you think there's a bubble in something, what can you do beyond not investing in it? Short-selling in a bubble is usually a terrible idea. It's like Keynes says, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
the below is a reply to the above
Interesting: so I'm guessing you don't think the ability to short a stock / a market (I don't know how long this ability has existed, whether or not it's a more recent phenomenon) has had a positive impact in tamping down or even preventing bubbles in more recent times?
I think it probably helps tamp down bubbles a bit. It's just that it's so much easier and less risky to buy a stock than it is to short it, and it always has been.
Maybe we wouldn't see many bubbles in a market where it was as easy to bet against a stock as it was to bet on it. There's a bit of experimental work on this, but history doesn't tell us an awful lot.
the below is a reply to the above
Interesting. This might be a little too in the weeds, but... Do you have ideas in mind of how to make short selling easier? Or, to put it more broadly, would such a task be on your list of 'initiatives to avoid future bubbles'?
I'm not sure if that would be a good thing. Easy short selling might make bubbles less likely. But it might also lower asset prices, making it expensive for companies to raise capital, which would be bad for the economy. There hasn't been a huge amount of research on the real economic effects of short selling and short sale constraints.
Hello Dr. Quinn, it's nice to see such a subject come up here. You are talking about some bubbles being fairly benign but in my mind, when a bubble explode, there is money technically disappearing "overnight" and it is bound to have some repercussions on the economy, even if it's indirectly - like a landowner having to increase its rents to make up for the lost money. How can a bubble not affect the overall economy or even have beneficial effects?
Thanks, it's nice to be here!
It's more accurate to say that there's a negligible effect on the overall economy - there is some effect, but it's so small it wouldn't show up in any economic data. This is the case when:
1. The people who lose money can afford to lose it, so the wealth effects you describe are minimal
2. The banks aren't exposed to the bubble
Technology bubbles could have beneficial effects by encouraging massive flows of money into very innovative parts of the economy. Whereas in a fully rational market, R+D is underfunded. If you get a financial crisis or a severe recession afterwards then this is completely insignificant, but if not, it might be fair to say that a bubble was a good thing for society.
What's common between different bubbles that have burst and what may be something that's unique about some (maybe the recent ones)? Also, have there been instances when a bubble was identified in hindsight but it never burst or rather just sizzled? Thank you!
I'll answer the second question first. Most bubbles just sizzle rather than bursting. There are two big exceptions - 1929 in the US, and China in 2015. This was because during those bubbles, so many stocks were held on margin (i.e. with borrowed money). When prices started to fall, the banks issued margin calls, forcing indebted shareholders to sell their shares. This caused prices to fall further, leading to more margin calls, and so on.
But usually, prices fall pretty gradually.
I answered about commonalities earlier, so I'll talk about what was unique about the most recent bubbles in the book- the Chinese bubbles of 2007 and 2015. These were characterised by extensive state involvement in the market, culminating in a series of increasingly desperate (and unsuccessful) attempts to stop the crash. At one point, students at Tsinghua University were instructed to chant "Revive the A shares, benefit the people; Revive the A shares, benefit the people" at their graduation. All markets have some government involvement, but this was a new level.
Are bubbles black swan events that can't be predicted? Or can they be predicted? If they can be predicted, what are some indicators that you can look for? (Sorry if it's a dumb question, my only knowledge of financial bubbles comes from the movie The Big Short which is about a few individuals who saw the 2008 crash coming).
The Big Short is a great movie, love it.
It depends what you mean by predicted. I think it's hard to tell when a bubble is coming in advance, but not impossible. To make it sound much easier than it is: if the government is pushing policies that will cause house prices to rise, then house prices will probably rise.
I think it's possible to tell when you're in a bubble. I wouldn't say it's easy. With the dot-com bubble, a lot of people who were praised afterwards for being the voice of reason were actually saying we were in a bubble long before we were. But there were also plenty of people who called it correctly.
I think it's almost impossible to tell when a bubble is going to burst. That's why I wouldn't recommend shorting one!
Hi thanks for doing this. Who generally suffers the most from these bubbles? Is there a general trend in the solutions that have been used to recover from the crisis after a bubble has burst?
Strangely, we don't really see a common trend in the distributional effects of the bubbles themselves. It's not really the case that the rich are systematically better at riding the bubble and getting out at the right time.
But bubbles can lead to recessions, and in a recession it's always the poorest who are hit hardest.
Cleaning up the aftermath is much like managing any other recession. I'm more or less on board the very broad consensus in economics that governments should loosen monetary and fiscal policy while protecting the financial sector.
Hi, from my understanding the South Sea bubble had key figures responsible for the mayhem (it was Walpole). Are there any other bubbles that had mischievous actors significantly responsible for what happened?
Yes! In the same year as the South Sea Bubble, the Mississippi Bubble was 100% John Law's baby. The Bicycle Mania was driven by a couple of very dodgy "promoters", most notably Ernest Terah Hooley, who engineered the flotation of the Dunlop Company.
At other times we push back against the role of the individual. The US media in the 1920s were obsessed with what powerful men were doing during the bubble, but we think its causes were much more structural.
What is your background Dr. Quinn? Economist or Historian? What fascinated you so much about the topic that made you dedicate so much time to writing a book about Financial Bubbles. I've tried to read a lot of economics focused literature in the past and I've always been a little disappointed in the lack of macro economic theory/metrics being referenced. (I also love graphs.. Haha) Thank you in advance if you do respond.
Haha great question. Economists think I'm a historian and historians think I'm an economist.
My interest in bubbles would explain my choice of PhD - I think finance only gets really interesting when things go horribly wrong. As I was finishing up, the opportunity came up to spend three years writing this book with John, and I didn't have to think twice about it. Writing is hard and painful, but I couldn't do any other job.
I have a more general question: are all developed economies damned to be cyclical? There's so much discussion in politics about economic policy but in the end it seems like there's recession every 5-10 years brought on by one thing or another.
It's a good question. I would say the answer depends on what you mean by cyclical. Does it require the economic cycles to be of a relatively fixed length?
If yes, then non-cyclical economies do exist. Booms can last anywhere from a few months to several decades, and recessions the same.
If no, then saying "economies are cyclical" is the same as saying "booms happen sometimes and recessions happen sometimes". And I do think recessions will always happen sometimes.
Dr. Quinn, how would you compare the parts malfeasance and greed/stupidity play during a boom? For example, I am incredibly frustrated by downplaying things like obfuscation of risk and sidelining the risk management units during the 2000s housing boom. But should I be?
Oh you're completely right to be angry.
Malfeasance and fraud are often a part of bubbles, but what really stands out about the 2000s housing bubble is the total lack of consequences for those responsible. Those involved in other bubbles were dragged over the coals whether they deserved it or not. The Financial Times keeps a list of all the bankers who go to jail for their role in the 2000s crash: https://ig.ft.com/jailed-bankers/. The U.K., where I live, has none; the U.S. has one.
The Western coverage of Japan in the 1990s was fascinating to look back on while researching the book. The bubble and subsequent crisis were attributed to an unhealthily close relationship between politicians and businessmen, which shielded both from any consequences. But in comparison to the aftermath of the 2000s bubble, a lot of very powerful Japanese people went to jail for their activities during the bubble.
When did we come up with the idea of "bubbles"? How has our understanding/response changed from before/after we slapped a label on it?
In the 1700s, "to bubble" meant "to deceive or defraud", and bubble was then used as a noun to describe the deceptive and fraudulent companies that sprung up when the South Sea scheme was taking place. This led to the Bubble Act of 1720, which outlawed almost all such companies. Over time, the meaning sort of morphed to describe a boom and bust in prices.
I would trace the concept back to Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds of 1841. It's a very unreliable source, but it also probably marks the first attempt to place these boom-bust episodes into one category to be analysed as a distinct phenomenon.
The Australian land boom you mention coincides with the process of federation of the Australian colonies. Did the bubble or its effects play a particular role in shaping federation?
Good question! I really don't know. It was one of the most economically destructive bubbles ever, so it must have had some knock-on political effects, but I don't know what those effects were.
Hello! Thanks for stopping by to talk today about your work. Always great to hear from another scholar! 😁 Although I don’t have a question about financial bubbles in particular, I was hoping you’d be willing to talk about your and your co-author’s process while writing this comprehensive of a work. What made you decide to cover so many different types of bubbles across different continents of multiple centuries? Were there any particular difficulties with working with such disparate material? Did the material lend itself to universalist discoveries, or were different socio-cultural factors affect each bubble differently? Hopefully these questions can provide some interesting discussion, and congratulations on the publishing! Thanks!
Had to think about this one!
We thought it was time someone did it - Kindleberger first came out almost 50 years ago, and so many bubbles have happened since, so much work on bubbles has been done.
There are language barriers for sure. An ongoing theme in the book is the role of the press, but we couldn't really cover that for the Japanese or (to a lesser extent) the Chinese bubble - we'd be relying on secondary sources too much.
We came up with a general theory of bubbles - the bubble triangle - which I posted above. It's not perfect, no theory is, but we think it fits the data very well. Personally I don't think history is at its most useful when it refuses completely to deal in generalities.
Have you identified any historical occasions where people thought there was a bubble, but the asset was actually not as overpriced as people thought and it did not crash?
The early parts of the dot-com boom were like this, especially the Netscape IPO, which turned out to be an excellent investment. By the bubble's peak in 2000, one of the reasons people weren't listening to pessimists was because they'd been wrong so many times before.
What is the most common mistake people have made throughout history during bubble bursts?
Probably overreacting. Historically the best times to buy stocks or houses have been in the aftermaths of busts.
That's tautological, but it still needs to be said, because overly optimistic investors get all kinds of mockery after a bubble, whereas overly pessimistic investors always seem to get away with bad predictions.
Hi Dr. Quinn, What are your thoughts on this this article? Their conclusion is the Japanese Asset Bubble and subsequent “lost decade” is the worst bubble of all time - I’ve noticed that this bubble hasn’t been mentioned elsewhere in the thread.
I like it! I messaged the writer on Twitter when it came out.
The Japanese Bubble is a great choice for the greatest bubble of all time. The other candidates are the 2000s, for the global impact, and the Mississippi Bubble, which ate the entire French economy and set their financial development back a century.
Thank you for doing this! What economic tools/methods/techniques did the pre 20th century economists have at their disposal to identify with substantial evidence (relevant to their times) any potential bubble? Are there instances in that period when a potential bubble was identified and downsized before its repercussions hit the market? How did they achieve that?
Very similar methods to the ones we'd use today, surprisingly! Lord Hutcheson used discounted cash flow analysis to argue that there was a bubble in South Sea stock in 1720, which is still the most theoretically sound way to value a stock.
how did people not catch on to the shenanigans keeping the south sea company afloat? pun intended
Because it was so complicated!
Try to explain the scheme to someone today, with 300 years of research to draw upon. They'll look at you like you've tried to explain a collateralized debt obligation to them in 2005.
What do you think about the Austrian model of the business cycle from Mises and Hayek and how artificial low interest rates and government stimulus cause large booms, creating malinvestments that make busts harder and longer?
The funny thing about the Mises/Hayek hypothesis is that they wrote it after the 1929 crash, for which it doesn't add up at all, because most of the bubble took place when interest rates were quite high. For other bubbles it fits much better.
I would agree with them that a lot of market movements are driven by political economy, often in the ways they describe. But the Austrian school seem to think that underneath all the political interference there's a market mechanism that would produce excellent outcomes, if we could only get rid of the politics stinking it up. I think politics is an imperfect solution to the existence of power in the world, and without politics, this power would manifest itself in violence more often, making markets even less efficient. But that's just how it looks to me.
the below is a reply to the above
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I don't think bubbles, in the way we define them, are 'inherent' to capitalism, because a lot of capitalist economies have existed for a very long time without experiencing any bubbles.
But clearly they're a capitalist phenomena. One of the sides of the bubble triangle is marketability, which is the essence of capitalism. And as we see in China, as countries become more capitalist, they experience more bubbles.
Hello Dr. Quinn! Very cool AMA so far, and I'm excited to read this book when it comes out. I'm not an Economics Major, but I do love reading and listening to materials on this topic, especially "The Big Short". Also, congratulations on getting this published in Cambridge University Press, I've heard that's no easy feat! First question: Due to the interconnection of a lot of the world markets, especially with instant electronic trading and massive amount of global trading, are bubbles and busts more frequent? Does the interconnectedness of world markets encourage overweighing the value of particular assets? Second question: In your research, did the asset bubbles typically require government action or intervention like the 2008 mortgage crisis? Thanks for taking your time for this AMA!
Thanks! The answer to the first question is yes. Increased capital mobility is one of the main reasons for the increased frequency of bubbles and crises after 1980.
Interconnectedness tends to lead to the overvaluation of particular assets at particular times, because when one country or sector is exciting, the whole world can mobilise its money towards it. This money can then leave countries just as quickly, which often causes a financial crisis.
Did the government need to react to the consequences of asset bubbles? For the bigger ones, yes, to protect the financial sector. At other times they would have been better off reacting less. The stock market bubble of the 1920s theoretically shouldn't have damaged the US economy very much. But the Federal Reserve raised interest rates because it was worried about it, and this caused big problems elsewhere in the economy, especially for banks.
Hope you enjoy the book!
Is there a comparable setting in history regarding the disconnection of ownership and allocation of financial assets that we can see these days and, if yes, what could we learn from it? (For example, my pension savings are managed by my employer who gives them to Allianz who invests it wherever, even in hedge funds that by far don't follow any of my moral standards.)
As far as I know, institutional investment on this scale is completely unprecedented. It doesn't seem healthy to me - so many incentives are messed up in so many ways. But unfortunately it's an area where the economic historians haven't been able to add much.
Great AMA, thanks! Looking forward reading your book, wonder if you see any trends in history of bubbles, how they change in their nature? What do people and governments learn from them and how (if at all) this correlate with development of economic science?
They're becoming more common and, like everything else, more global.
Economics has learned too much to mention from the 2000s housing bubble. Maybe the one big lesson is that modern economies are deeply interconnected and absolutely dependent on a handful of multinational financial corporations. That leads to very different policy advice than you would give when it was possible to analyse nation states as individual economic units.
I look forward to reading about the Australian land boom, as it's a very important part of my period that I've never truly gotten my head around. I was wondering how the international nature of some of these bubbles affects how you study them. So to take Australia as an example: how do you follow chains of causality when you have a crisis that hits six autonomous economies but where so much of the disaster takes place in the City of London? How do you begin to identify what matters when you have so many different sources- dozens or hundreds of banks and finance houses, seven legislatures, probably thousands of newspapers and so on.
The short answer is that it just takes THAT much work. Both of us worked non-stop on it, full time, for 3 years. The bibliography has over 700 sources in it, and that's after we trimmed it - it could easily be over 1,000. Then there was a lot of manual data entry, research that ended up going nowhere, and so on.
With Australia, we ended up following the money. House prices were driven up by a lot of first-time buyers - where did they get the money from? Mostly they borrowed it from land-boom companies - a bit like shadow banks. What were these land-boom companies? Where did they get their money from? And so on.
Hope you enjoy the book!
Would you find the causes associated with the 2000s housing bubble and the English South Sea Bubble comparable?
Only in the sense that they were both driven by government policy. The motivations involved were very different. The South Sea Bubble was an elaborate scheme to reduce the government debt. The 2000s housing bubble arose from the political desire to expand homeownership without making houses more affordable.
I once heard someone claim that all major financial crises were in some way caused by the government. Do you know of a good counter-example?
The government makes the rules for the financial sector, and any financial crisis could have been prevented by different/better rules. So in that sense it's true.
But if the intention of the claim was to argue that government intervention in the economy is inherently bad, the Australian financial crisis of the 1890s is a good counter-example, because it happened in a minimal-government-intervention, ultra-low-regulation environment.
Do you consider the “market cap to gdp” ratio a good indicator for a forming stock market bubble? I’ve been following the trend in the last 3-4 years and I noticed that it spiked to highs we haven’t seen in forty years. Everybody’s talking about investing but I’m just sitting in the sidelines thinking : “is everyone crazy? Everything points to a bubble about to burst.” I would love to hear your opinion.. and thanks for the AMA!
Right now, stock prices are high by traditional measures because the government won't allow them to fall. Whether now is a good time to invest largely depends on whether you think this is sustainable or not. Maybe it is and maybe it isn't, but I wouldn't call it a bubble about to burst.
It's also hard to find an alternative. All investment assets are expensive at the moment.
Was the decline of Egypt in the Bronze Age not accompanied by a bubble?
I've not heard this before! Do you have a good source on it?
Thank you Dr. Quinn. I was wondering what your opinion is of the effect of an increased pool of investors in a market in which they make uninformed investments because "everyone else is doing it and making so much money." A couple of examples come to mind like the dot com bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis, where large swathes of the public speculated in certain investments, internet stocks and mortgages respectively. Do you think an essential part of mania and bubbles is an increase of involvement of the general public?
Definitely, the entry of new investors into the market comes up again and again. Very notable in light of the recent day trading boom!
what period or periods of history are ignored by schools or whatnot
All of economic history is ignored by schools!
Does your book include The Mississippi Bubble and John Law/Louisiana?
2020.09.13 20:39 f00dl32020/21 Long Range Forecast V1
2020-21 Long Range Forecast - V1 Started: September 10th, 2020 Updated: September 13th, 2020 Released: Now through March 2021 - including base winter forecast! Welcome to kcregionalwx! According to my theory, there are 2 distinct patterns. There is an upper level pattern and a surface pattern. Each pattern feeds into and off of the other, and during summer months the surface pattern has the most control; over the winter months the upper level pattern has the most control. During the months of July into September, the new upper level pattern is shaped from the surface pattern as upper level features from the previous pattern weaken. Likewise, during the winter months (late January into March) the surface pattern is formed from features produced by the upper level pattern (such as moisture return trends, outflow, etc.) Last year I identified the upper level pattern as being 48 days. Summer month predictions were 67%, but the winter snowfall prediction was dead on, and average prediction rate around 65% for the past year. Also of similarity last year when the pattern was transitioning the "new features" were in Western Canada/Pacific Northwest. Same thing is happening this year. The new upper level features then set up shop a bit east of the first iteration in mid Summer months. So this is ballsy - this is out before anyone else has a winter forecast out, and I'm well aware of that. But I'm going for it! I do reserve the right to modify this and will modify it in February for V2 when I see signs of the new surface pattern. If it is just really really off I may modify it as well. This year I am trying a new approach. I am weighing in the upper pattern and surface pattern at a varaible range based upon time of year and factoring in moisture, temperatures, and storm likelyhood from both patterns to figure out the outcome. Attached is the "show my work" part of this. One interesting thing is that the patterns really are aligned pretty decently for the surface and upper levels right now and while some things don't match up day to day things are matching up pretty nice. Temperatures are weighed in at a -5 to +5 scale for upper levels, and -10 to +10 for surface. All other factors are weighed in at 0 to 10 for upper and surface levels. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BWIhfcoP5yUVXaRnvazpLUrQpnqqedUJ/view?usp=sharing -------- I: Upper level features Exhibit 1: The part in Canada is old pattern features or are they? The timing of those features appears to have changed from 48 to 53 days during this cycle. Jun 15: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200615_00.gif Aug 8: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200808_00.gif Next up: Sep 30 Exhibit 2: Several waves of energy on periphery of central Canada trough. June ridge right on us, August that ridge located east. Jun 19: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200619_00.gif Aug 12: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200812_00.gif Next up: Oct 4 Exhibit 3: Jun 23: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200623_00.gif Aug 16: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200816_00.gif Next up: Oct 8 Exhibit 4: * This may or may not come back next cycle. Wild card. Trough W CA. Trough E CA appears to carry over. Jul 5: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200705_00.gif Aug 27: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200827_00.gif Next up: Oct 19 Exhibit 5: Jul 8: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200708_00.gif Aug 31: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200901_00.gif Next up: Oct 23 Exhibit 6: * This may have been a fluke residual from last pattern. The ripple is in central Iowa north of Des Moines barely visible on UL map. Jul 13: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200713_00.gif Sep 5: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200905_00.gif Next up: Oct 28 Exhibit 7: Colorado/Wyoming Winter Storm ---- Feature Presentation Jul 17: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200717_00.gif << Energy diving out of west Canada Sep 8: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200908_00.gif << Energy diving into Montana Jul 19: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200719_00.gif Sep 10: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200910_00.gif Jul 21: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200721_00.gif Next up: Nov 1 - 3 Exhibit 8: Western Canada feature morphing. Feature is held back allowing ridging to build across CONUS. Jul 25: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200725_00.gif Forecast Sep 14: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2020091100/NA/GFSNA_500_spd_087.png Next up: Nov 6 Exhibit 9: Troughing dives in from central Canada to the Great Lakes region. Slow to move out. Waves of energy in this trough. Ridge over central Canada will shift east and trough over western Canada will amplify energy over NE/WY area. This will also amplify cutoff stuck between cycles. Jul 29: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200729_00.gif Forecast Sep 20: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2020091100/NA/GFSNA_500_spd_237.png Next up: Sep 19-23 Then: Nov 15 Exhibit 10: Ridge builds sharply across central US but deep trough axis pushes down to great lakes region. Aug 1: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200801_00.gif Aug 3: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_200803_00.gif Forecast Sep 26: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2020091100/NA/GFSNA_500_spd_378.png Next up: Sep 24 - 26 Then: Nov 16-18 ----------- II: Surface Pattern Preliminary indications are that our new summer surface pattern was 28 days. I am adjusting this to 38-41 days based on trends. Exhibit 1: Surface moisture surge all the way up to Canada border. Heavy rain here. Jul 1: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200701_00.gif Aug 8: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200808_00.gif Exhibit 2: August Derecho Iowa Jul 3: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200703_12.gif -- see moisture surge pattern. The derecho was related to last year's upper level pattern but moisture pooling to this surface pattern Aug 10: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200810_12.gif Exhibit 3: Surface storm with squeezing moisture and 3" of rain Jul 15: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200715_00.gif Aug 23: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200823_00.gif -- dewpoint surge related to residual mositure in pattern over ND/SD/MN border. Exhibit 4: Surface low just south of Kansas City. Jul 20: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200720_00.gif Aug 27: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200827_00.gif Exhibit 5: Warm moist airmass pushing gulf moisture up and warm air. Jul 23: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200723_00.gif Sep 1: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200901_00.gif Exhibit 6: Jul 29: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200729_00.gif Sep 7: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200907_00.gif Exhibit 7: Surface high pressure pushing unseasonably cold air down. Aug 4: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200804_00.gif Sep 11: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/925_200911_00.gif ---------- III: Verification of previous forecast (2019-20 v5) Rankings: Total: 24/36 (67%) Precip: 10 Temps: 14 Given allowance of +/- 1 day variation Temps: -1 if missed, 0 if neutral, +1 if hit. Precipitation: 0 if nothing around, 0.5 if around but not in KC, +1 if in KC. JUN 7-14 - PSYCH! Originally, though a severe weather outbreak possible during this period with a major storm as it moves by the region around the 10th. In reality, it's possible influences from a tropical storm may mess with the instability and timing. Cool air may be filtering in at the beginning of the period but expect a return to warmer temperatures as the system passes. GFS Point: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2020060506/US/GFSUS_500_avort_105.png Precip: 0, None Temps: 0, Minor cool down JUN 15-19 - Warming trend with temperatures rising to near 90. Periods of diurnal thunderstorms. GFS Point: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2020060506/US/GFSUS_500_avort_270.png Precip: 0, no rain Temps: 1, hit 90F 3/4 days JUN 19-22 - Cold front with rain and thunderstorms, cooling us down to seasonal temperatures. Damaging winds possible with a squall line. GFS Point: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2020060506/US/GFSUS_500_avort_384.png Precip: 0.5, 0.09" of rain through period Temps: 1, cooled down to 76F High on 19th JUN 23-26 - Cooler than normal temperatures with light rain showers possible and maybe a thunderstorm. Precip: 1, 0.23" on 25th Temps: 1, ran on 90F JUN 28-JUL 4 - Warm air builds in and we may make a run at 95F. Several weak waves of energy resulting in daily rain chances 1st-3th. Hot on the 4th-6th. Precip: 1 - heavy rain on 1st, 0.01" two other days Temps: 1. 91F two days JUL 5-8 - Omega block creates hot temperatures. Possible heat wave. Precip: 1 - spot on Temps: 1 - spot on JUL 9-13 - Several chances for thunderstorms and a return to normal summer temperatures. A cold front may give a glancing blow or stall out - if this happens flash flooding is likely. A storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico. Precip: 0.5 - 0.04" on the 9th. Temps: 1 - Averaged to normal. JUL 14-15 - Possible hurricane in Gulf of Mexico impacting Texas/Louisiana coastline. We have heat build in, with temperatures approaching 95F. Precip: 0 - 3.52" rain on 15th. Temps: 0 - no heat wave Bonus: 0 - no hurricane. JUL 16-24 - Possible heat wave and temperatures near 95F, possibly near 100F. Likely hottest stretch of summer. Precip: 0.5 - 2.71" of rain on 20/21st. Not mentioned, so 0.5. Temps: 1. Hottest 2 day stretch of summer JUL 24-28 - Unseasonably strong cold front stalls out north then pushes south, breaks up the heat wave and produces a good chance of a squall line with damaging winds. Temperatures return to near normal. Precip: 0.5. Heavy rain on 29th. Temps: 1. 4 day stretch of warm temps ended by cold front on 27th. JUL 29-AUG 4 - Warm humid stretch with temperatures 90-95F. Several nocturnal complexes of thunderstorms especially north of Kansas City. Precip: 0.5 - Thunderstorms were here on/off Temps: 0 - Was a very mild stretch with some highs in 70s. AUG 5-6 - Warm air pulled in ahead of a western trough and chances of thunderstorms firing over the rockies turning into MCS systems. Highs near 90. Wind threat with storms overnights, flash flooding possible. Precip: 0 - dry. Temps: 0. Cool. AUG 7-16 - Cold front comes in and stalls. Flash flooding where this cold front stalls out day to day. North of front it will be in the 70s/80s, south in the low-mid 90s and humid. The entire region should see at least 6" of rainfall during this period. Precip: 0.5. We had rain on/off during period but nowhere near 6" Temps: 1. Was in mid 80s. No heat wave. But not 70s either. AUG 17-22 - Continued front sagged across the region. Heavy rainfall chances continue, with possibly a tropical storm in the gulf finally pulling some of the moisture out around the 22-23rd. Precip: 0 - no rain Temps: 1 - no excessive heat, but -6 to -10 below average. AUG 23-28 - Heat builds in but it's very humid. Dew points may be near 80 at times, with highs in the lower 90s. Heat indexes approach 110. Diurnal thunderstorm chances daily. Precip: 1 - spot on Temps: 1 - spot on AUG 29-SEP 3 - Storm system comes in bringing a cold front into the central US. Thunderstorms along that front. While this happens, another tropical system may form in the gulf and move inland near TX/LA. Tropical system pulls energy with it as it passes by towards Sep 3. Precip: 1 - sep 1 front. Temps: 1 - sep 1 front. Bonus: 0 - no tropical system SEP 4 - SEP 6 - Last spite of summer as temperatures may surge to near 95F for several days. Several weak waves of energy may trigger isolated storms. Cold front approaches northern portions of the central US around 8th. Temps: 1 - spot on 91f on 6rd. Precip: 1 - on 5th SEP 7 - SEP 16 - Cold front stalls out across the area. Thunderstorm and MCS chances daily. Temperatures near average to slightly below average. Temps: 1: Much below average with cutoff low Precip: 1 - wet storm system ------------- IV: Long range forecast through March 2021: "Best Guess" Winter snowfall: 25" through the period, 29" for the season ending in mid April. September 17th - moisture and temperatures increase slightly. Sep 19 to 21 - temperatures hover around seasonal values and weather remains dry. Sep 22 to 23 - mild temperatures with a chance of rain as a cold front approaches. Sep 24 to Oct 3 - temperatures cool to below normal, then return to around normal, mild weather. Oct 4 to 6 - chance of rain, temperatures slightly above normal. Oct 7 to 14 - mild weather, seasonal. Oct 15 to 17 - temperatures soar above normal, weather remains dry. Oct 18 to 23 - temperatures much below normal, possible weak waves of energy and rain chances but no major storms. Oct 24 to 28 - strong storm system digs into the region bringing rain possibly mixed with a few snow flakes at the onset. Cold temperatures moderate. Oct 29 to 31 - temperatures hover around normal, dry stretch. Major storm starts to carve into the Rockies. Nov 1 to 5 - Major storm system digs into the Rockies. Temperatures are near seasonal here, leading to mainly rain with a few snowflakes. Thunderstorms at times. As the low passes cold air may wrap in to change to a mix. Accumulating snow possible near St. Joseph. Dusting to 1" for KC. Nov 6 to 10 - Mild weather, mostly dry. Maybe a shower. Cool after passing of first storm but warming up. Nov 11 to 16 - Warm air returns for several days bringing a chance of thunderstorms. Nov 17 to 24 - Several weak storm systems moves by producing a chance of rain, temperatures around normal. Nov 25 to 30 - Strong surge of warm air created by deepening storm bring thunderstorms, cold front blows through, heavy rain changing to snow on the 27th. Moderate accumulations of snow possible in KC. Dec 1 to 3 - Strong cold air remains in place starts to retreat by 4th. Dec 4 to 7 - Showers possible as warm air erodes cold air away. Maybe some freezing drizzle at times. Dec 8 to 14 - Temperatures around normal. A weak storm may be around the 12th mainly rain showers. Dec 15 to 22 - Temperatures below normal with possible surge of Arctic air on 18th. Chance of 2 clipper systems with light snow. Dec 23 to 28 - Major bomb storm system with possible blizzard conditions across the midwest. Major travel impacts. Thunderstorms and heavy snow possible in Kansas City. Possible shot of Arctic air and a cold snow in the teens. Dec 29 to 31 - Temperatures return to around normal with dry weather for several days before the next storm forms. Jan 1 to 3 - Moderate storm forms bringing warm nose of air at first then temperatures returning to near normal. Snow or freezing rain to rain. Light accumulations of wintry precipitation. Jan 4 to 13 - Temperatures hover around normal with mostly mild weather. Can not rule out a shower or snow shower but nothing major. Jan 14 to 16 - Strong storm with cold air moves in. Moderate snow accumulations possible. Jan 17 to 19 - Moderating temperatures while our new surface pattern starts to take shape. No major precipitation chances. Jan 20 to 22 - Storm system moves in bringing some cold air. Rain mixing with or changing to snow. Light accumulations possible, moderate in areas. Jan 23 to 28 - Temperatures near normal, dry weather pattern. Jan 29 to 31 - Storm digs into central US bringing chance of rain changing to moderate snow across the area before winding down. Light to moderate in areas. Feb 1 to 2 - Cold air mass in place after previous storm moves out. Not Arctic though. Feb 3 to 4 - Seasonable temperatures with some snow showers possible in weak energy waves. Light snow possible. Feb 5 to 10 - Another major winter storm sets up across the area. Heavy snow accumulations possible with arctic air blast, but the cold air may be too strong and strip the storm of moisture, leaving with light snow. Feb 11 to 12 - Temperatures remain below normal between storm systems. Feb 13 to 16 - Possible back to back winter storm sets up with temperatures remaining below normal. Moderate snow likely, possibly heavy. Feb 17 to 24 - Temperatures gradually warm up to near normal. Maybe a clipper system on the 18th as the cold air retreats with light snow. Feb 25 to 26 - Decent storm moves in but may be too warm to stay all snow. May be a mixed bag of rain/sleet/snow/freezing rain. Light accumulations as temperatures are in question. Feb 27 to 28 - Temperatures return to normal. Dry.
Parishes that have a 5% positivity rate for 2 weeks can opt-in to on-premise alcohol sales.
St. John the Baptist
Storm entering the gulf (information is available above).
Moment of remembrance for September 11th.
Asks that people remember the sense of unity that we had post 9/11 we should be able to gain that unity without having that tragedy.
Restaurants, churches, salons, spas, gyms, and other businesses can open at 75% occupancy with social disgracing distancing required.
Bars have been closed for on-premises consumption. We have done what we can to help them realize revenue. Know there is still a number of them that are closed to on-premises consumption, want to provide a responsible framework for them to open as it is safe to do so. Looking at White House Taskforce guidance...
Bars will remain closed in parishes with a high incidence of COVID-19
As recommended by Coronavirus Taskforce.
Bars can open to on-premises consumption in.. parishes with a positivity rate of 5% or lower for 14 days if the parish gov opts-in. The two-week data is updated by the Dept of Health. The next update is on 9/16.
Bars can open with 25% capacity at 50 people total indoors.
Customers have to be seated for table-side only service.
Only 50 customers outdoors.
Social distancing required indoors and outdoors.
Outdoors have to be seated for service as well.
Live music still not allowed.
Sale and service of alcohol must end at 10 PM with patrons cleared by 11 PM.
Individuals younger than 21 are not allowed in a bar. 18-20-year-olds are not permitted in bars.
Other social gatherings indoors will be limited to 50% capacity with a max of 250 people with social distancing requirements.
Outdoor crowd sizes are limited to 50% capacity up to 250 people if people will be in close proximity and social distancing is not possible.
Casino limitations will not change under the new order. Casinos remain at 50% capacity / 75% of the gaming positions.
Sporting events will operate at 25% capacity with social distancing required and no alcohol sales.
Alcohol consumption at all venues will end at 10 PM.
Include restaurants, event centers, weddings, and casinos.
A statewide mask mandate remains in place.
CDC Recommendations remain in place for those at high-risk
should not go out, are safer at home, and should avoid large crowds unless they need to get food or medical care.
The order will be in place for 28 days expiring on Oct 9th.
Nothing will change for nursing home visitations.
Nursing home population remains at high-risk.
40% of all the fatalities in Louisiana from COVID-19 have occurred at nursing homes.
Congregate living --the type at nursing homes-- is where the virus spreads easier and these individuals with their age and comorbid health conditions are a higher risk of the virus and are more likely to have a poorer outcome.
LDH in consolation with CMS is working to finalize plans for a pilot program to see if we can allow for some visitation, specifically outdoor visitation. It would be a 28-day pilot program. Nursing homes will have to be located in parishes with 5% positivity or less and the home has to have 0 cases in the last 14 days to participate. Additional details to be provided.
People at the Department of Health are putting forth great effort to make sure we are doing this in a safe and effective way.
Data we are looking at when we look at the upper left we see COVID-like illness (people presenting to an ER with symptoms of COVID), below is a graph showing the volume of testing and organs bars show the percent positivity gray line is the 10% line, upper right is the epi curve (new cases remove every day by collection date) black line is the average of incidence over time, bottom right blue line is the hospitalizations and the organ line shows the last 14 days.
We always look at 14 days because that is the recommendation for the gating criteria from the White House.
COVID-like illness has been on a steady decline across every region since we had the mask mandate.
The testing graph shows the interruption that happened as a result of Marco and Laura, the state needed to redeploy its resources and its National Guard partners meaning we could not do community testing at the level we wanted. So you can see the decline from the week that represents the storm, and you are beginning to see a rebound from that due to our wonderful National Guardsmen redeploying our testing sites. However, we are not seeing the line come up very high very quickly.
The people of Louisiana need to know:
Testing is widely available.
Get tested if you have symptoms.
Get tested if you've been exposed.
Get tested if you evacuated due to Hurricane Laura.
As you can see the percent positivity has been declining, we are at about 6.79% right now, which is well below the 10% recommendation for the state.
The epi curve shows we have been on a steady decline since the mask mandate and bar closures.
More recently there has been an uptick in the state. Some of that reflects a decrease in testing with a new increase in testing and some of that reflects quite frankly new cases that we know are evolving in settings like universities and schools, but not over a 14 day period. We have not made that criteria of a 14 day period.
Hospitalizations have been on a steady decline since the new restrictions.
Strictly speaking, looking at the data we have met the criteria for moving into Phase 3.
However, there is data we don't see/know, that is what we need to be watching out for
Impact of Hurricane Laura
We had a week we didn't have visibility for because of decreased testing.
Frankly, there is not as much testing happening as we would like to see from shelterees and evacuees right now. We do not know if transmission of the virus has happened because we are not catching it because we not seeing people taking advantage of the testing.
Testing sites in Lake Charles and Sulphur.
Testing available at points of distribution.
Testing sites in New Orleans and Baton Rouge in hotels.
There is a significant amount of asymptomatic spread, please get tested and protect your family.
Schools reopening - the impact of K-12 going back to school and universities reopening. Part of that is because we paused testing and because people went back home and now they have returned to school.
We know not everyone has gone back to full in person.
Most have done hybrid learning.
Labor Day Weekend - because there hasn't been enough time.
Most people stayed home and celebrated with their household.
Some people didn't and we won't know the impacts until 2 weeks from now.
Hopefully, we will find people by large did what we asked. That cases and hospitalizations stay down because as you saw we have a very active Atlantic season right now. Not a good time for us to face multiple disasters as we have more COVID increase.
Another trend we are focused on is the increase in cases in the 18-29-year-old age group.
The sharp uptick in 18-21-year-old age group.
The age group that has gone back to school.
Still seeing that group come up even with bars closed.
Watch this very carefully especially as we talk about gatherings and football.
Saw last time that as this age group leads other age groups followed.
CDC released a report of childcare settings and infections of those that the child return home to.
Under the age of 21 we really do not want you in the bar setting. You should not be there. You are not of drinking age, and it brings you into a setting where you are at high risk for exposure.
COVID like illness is decreasing across the state. When we look at cases across the state it is a mixed bag. There are many regions across the state where we are seeing an uptick in cases but they do not meet the 14-day threshold.
Note Region 5 is difficult because it is the SW Louisiana and it is difficult because all numbers plummeted because of evacuation and as they return we would expect to see increases.
Concerned as we look at hospitalizations. Our biggest concern is being able to have adequate healthcare capacity to meet the needs of Louisiana.
Watching these trends closely.
As we move into Phase 3 and there are greater capacity in restaurants and some bars and operate in limited services. It is critical to remember that everything that has gotten us to this point still needs to be in place.
The physical distancing of 6 ft or more is really important.
When we call you and ask if you have been in 6 ft of someone for greater than 15 minutes... you will still be a potential contact and need to quarantine for 14 days if you have been exposed to a known positive COVID case for more Thant 15 minutes.
Continue to wear a mask. More and more data shows that people who are shedding the virus mask usage reduces the risk you spread the tother people. You protect other people by wearing a mask and other people protect you by wearing their mask.
Do you have any idea how many parishes are below 5% or less? 5 out of 64 parishes. Mechanically does the 2 week period become effective today or does it become effective on the 16th? As the governor noted we will be updating this, we have been providing these updates and will provide the next one on the 16th. First, the parish has to make 2 (2-week checks at 5% positivity or less so 4 weeks total, and then the parish government has to opt-in. What does the nursing home pilot program look like? What you will see us talking about, is decreasing becomes less relevant than what is going on in the community. The percent of positivity is especially important. What is the level of spread in your community? So for the nursing home pilot we are looking at a low community spread so probably 5% or less in the community. We are also working with nursing homes to establish protocols where people are outdoors. People are wearing PPE and it has to be a pretty nicely mandated visitation where you know who and when someone is coming, being symptomatic, isolated, or quarantined for COVID-19 will all be reasons to not see your loved one. Out of the 5,000 Louisianians, we have lost so far 40% have been from nursing homes. As we look to have families reunite we must do this in a way to not put your loved ones at risk. Not only your loved one but those in the rest of the facility as well. John Bel Edwards
A parish has to be eligible so they have to be at the 5% below the threshold for at least 2 weeks.
Data is publicly available on the LDH website.
Parish has to opt-in.
If at some point subsequent to opting in a parish gets to 10% or higher in positivity then those bars will close again. Then it starts over again and they will have to satisfy the gating criteria again.
Otherwise, you would reopening and closing bars within a few days or so, so this is a way to do this responsibly and safely under the control of the local government.
We've had some positive trends that allowed just to make these moves but I have a concern about what isn't reflected in the data which is why this has been the most difficult decision I had to make with respect to applying the gating criteria to the phasing.
Encourage people to take mitigation measures seriously.
As we reopen more of the economy/our churches, to more occupancy, these things only really work if we continue to wear our masks. Wash your hands frequently. Stay home when sick. Socially distance from that outside for your household
Outdoors is safer than indoors.
If you want to support restaurant pick up, get delivery, or eat outdoors.
People need to understand there isn't a lot of room for movement forward beyond Phase 3 until we get past the pandemic.
Until such time social distancing isn't required how do you go to 100% occupancy?
We do not go from 75% to 100% until the pandemic is over.
Hurricane Laura Info Mod note I am not covering this but if you would like me to please message me.
Missed question I am concerned about the impact Labor Day will have. Experienced the beginning of the Summer with Memorial Day. We Know that is when we had a surge in cases driven by the younger population, particularly those in the 18-29-year-old group. I hope behavior would be different for Labor Day because everyone saw the impact that behavior had on our state. Dr. Birx was talking about, the White House was talking about it. I am hopeful that won't happen again. I am relieved we are increasing our testing numbers again and having more testing sites coming up and will be watching the data very closely. I am mindful that we have started school. Colleges' campuses have also opened to students. But am comforted that there is still a lot of virtual and hybrid learning occurring. We do not have a lot of school systems fully open for in-person instruction. I believe Louisiana will do what is needed to protect one another from having a repeat of what happened after Memorial Day. Is there some scenario where we have those Labor Day numbers come in and they are so bad you change your mind and we go back? There is always [that possibility], whether because of Labor Day or anything else, you watch the numbers. We will not put ourselves on a course where we lose the ability to deliver life-saving care in our hospitals. It didn't happen in the first or second surge and I will not let it happen going forward. Yeah it certainly remains possible, but I am hopeful we will not get anywhere close to that, but if we have to we will. I have said this all along. That is why we keep making the point -- it is not a theory anymore -- we had that huge surge in March and April and we were able to flatten the curve through a stay at home order but, we have shown reducing our curve is not reliant on having to have a stay at home order if people wear their masks, wash their hands, and social distance. You can have a larger portion of your economy open and have and much normalcy as possible without the cases skyrocketing if you adhere to the mitigation measures. It is up to the people of Louisiana to adhere to them. I have a lot of concerns. Anytime you announce you are going to the next phase people tune out all the info they are given that COVID is still here, that abiding by mitigation measures, protecting the vulnerable, all of that stuff and some people will say well we are going forward and that is all they think about. That mindset is what causes us to have real issues as well. Need people to mindful. I ask local leaders to set good examples so we can stay on top of this virus and keep trends going in the right direction. Will Phase 3 have any impact on the state workforce in respect to the public sector In order to make sure all sate employees are working where they can be most efficient and productive in the safest possible way. Where you have offices, for example, cannot be at 100% so some of those people will continue to be home. Some agencies work in office spaces that are less traditional where it is harder to work safer in that environment while people on wildlife and fisheries are on a boat and in a safer environment.
Thank you for continuing to cover this.
If you look at the Gulf of Mexico to the West Coast of Africa you will see a number of storm systems most of which do not pose a threat to Louisiana. The one off of the coast of Florida does, and too soon to know about the coast of Africa. It will be very difficult for our state if we have to go through another hurricane in our present posture where we have people already sheltered from the last storm which we are still trying to recover from.
Lift each other in prayer.
Be good neighbors.
Do what is required of us to protect ourselves, family, and one another.
Demographics and Geography - The official website of Louisiana
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